From December 14th to 15t愛些h, at the EU’s last summit of美錯 the year, in addition to 可白topics such as Britain’s sec畫地ession from the European Union,男體 refugee sharing, and Europea有小n defense integration, the Briti影熱sh referendum decided話務 to “Brexit” and was repeate懂能dly mentioned again.件高 "France-Germany axis" topic, because 刀河the unanimous statement輛紙s of the leaders of the two countr紅街ies on the issue of promoting econom筆裡ic reform in the euro 中師zone once again attracted attention音水.
After the respective French and G在笑erman general elections e也線nded, China's political t廠資ransition and reforms were also b票術rought to China's attention. The Chine些明se academic community made timely re要少flections on the direction of the EU a問公fter the French-German elec媽放tion and Sino-European短城 relations. Recently, it was spon電舊sored by the European Studies Cent業大er of Fudan University/Sino-Euro有房pean Humanities Exchange Research 農紙Center, the Shanghai Europ海關ean Society, and co-organized by 白生the European Research Institute 開草of the European Society of Chi輛近na and the Shanghai Institute of I山讀nternational Relations. A他慢t the "Symposium on the Dev議她elopment of the EU and Ch開月ina-EU Relations after the 車討French-German Election," the算雜 participating experts discussed 又機the current status and pro老拿spects of the EU's e技亮conomic, social, political, 們現and diplomatic issues, the impact of th一算e French-German election on the EU, and爸好 the prospects for th少高e development of China-EU數水 relations.
Ding Chun, Director of技算 the Center for Euro章校pean Studies at the Fudan 的動University/China-European Hum廠日anities Exchange Research Center and書我 Chairperson of the European Uni北窗on Jean Monet, pointed out that 月體when the "Roman Treaty" was f公山irst, Europe was still not peaceful, in林生cluding the French election. Horror, t聽山he difficulty of German cabinet. Th市老e rights game between the EU a生水nd its member states, the i門什nstitutional shortcomings 大又in EU governance, the eco動志nomic short-term recovery momen唱花tum is good, and the l行算ong-term growth is weak-divi花街sion and integration, convergence a靜大nd separation, Europe is in the proces月們s of exploring where to go again . I少藍n terms of Sino-European rela機老tions, bilateral economic and trade 通北relations are both a stable anchor and文拍 a clutch. The two sides are in跳新 the unity of contradic小從tions and competitions betw師空een competition and cooperation.
On December 15, in Br時靜ussels, the capital of Belgium, French好很 President Macron (left) and女頻 German Chancellor Angela Merkel atte拿妹nded a press conference.
Eurozone reform depends朋公 on France and Germany to comprom和下ise
On December 6, the European Commissio請內n issued a draft reform plan fo票吧r the euro zone, proposing to t湖大ransform the euro zone 老腦bailout fund into a Europea水廠n monetary fund from 2019; it is prop慢我osed to set up the euro zone e服自conomy and finance minister from 哥街November 2019; Establish integrat生還ed tools in the budget to help non-eur樂唱ozone countries move closer to the eur理校o.
These reforms aim to inc年雪rease the EU’s ability to器道 withstand crises, build a more re場數silient economy, and reduce economic d子女ifferences between countries, and al那刀so partially echo the 拿湖reform proposals put f都雪orward by French President Macro放到n.
Macron put forward a series of pr議不oposals to reshape the Eu子鐵ropean Union in Septemb放河er this year. However, the e生草uro zone reform plan 答體has reached an impasse due to diff農紅erences within the European Union錯村. The euro zone economic pow機飛ers such as Germany and the 動雜Netherlands believe that th書冷e reform plan means taking risks外線 together with other hea物了vily indebted country partners such as 雜大Spain, Italy, and Greece, and thus跳子 retain their reservations. At this南國 EU summit, German Chancellor 姐鄉Angela Merkel gave Macron a mor請信e affirmative answer,西煙 "It is time to push forwa我頻rd the reform of the e多行uro." The single currenc哥內y is more favorable in 購雨the case of a high debt crisis.
Merkel and Macron said at a joint畫海 press conference on the 15飛船th that Germany and France will 刀街reach a "common position著的" on the euro zone refo弟飛rm plan by March next year. Macron sai日媽d he also hopes that這刀 by June next year, the 19 member state要短s of the euro zone will r河美each a "road map" for euro zon綠來e reform.
At this summit, although no concret歌美e results have been produced on the 間高euro zone reform plan, it討慢 will inevitably become the 了務focus of EU discussio廠北ns in the coming months.
Zhang Ji (director of the Sino-好物Foreign Humanities Ex機兵change Research Center of Fudan U亮錯niversity and deputy d在如irector of the French 視這Research Center): Rejuvenatin商雜g France’s leadership relies書北 on French-German cooper空為ation, but it is necessary to chan門南ge the pattern of “strong vi答喝rtue and weak law” in the光笑 French-German cooperation. It吧動's already a bit eager to try快友. The German cabinet negotiations ha短通ve not been completed, and Macron j間相ust took this opportunity to make a l人這ittle change to the situation 好話of "strengthening the law and weakeni亮爸ng the law." This is the side of Macron算業's European policy; the other side of M算雪acron's European policy is to鐵姐 respond to the needs o多司f the people and guarant老時ee a Europe, which can p坐個rovide protection, protects the Europea了木n people in terms of safety, econ南城omy and value, especi都用ally the middle class and wo弟雪rking class whose in請小terests have been damage美家d. To achieve this goal, Macron’s 秒體policy framework includes strengthenin書林g the EU’s diplomatic and milita樂短ry capabilities, enhancing the EU’s e機放fficiency in responding to large-睡和scale refugees, revitalizing the Europ刀北ean economy, and deepening th她兒e euro’s regional integr村年ation.
In the past, Merkel and Macr南議on's new government generall影做y cooperated, and now機拿 it depends on the formation 男資of the German cabinet. T場章he highlight of the French-German coo雨雪peration is in the defe跳黑nse and security fields, and t區銀he related disputes are relati習花vely small; but there ar動明e still many differences in the多到 economic field. There ar醫業e some differences between Fr頻購ance and Germany in terms of deep還坐ening the integration of the euro ar我錢ea. Macron emphasizes the risk sharin黑慢g in the euro area, as w船有ell as a common budget and strength他國ening joint investment to 弟長stimulate economic g低道rowth.
Wang Shuo (Deputy Director of the Eu爸刀ropean Institute of China Institu醫唱te of Modern International Relations船器): For Macron, European construct山能ion is tied to his domestic ec很湖onomic reform and const火匠ruction. He knows that France新暗’s current economy is very tolerant of如讀 the euro area and the Europea一北n Union, and Macron has a在女lways believed that after the e的森stablishment of the euro area, Germany學短 has received the largest 購和dividend, and France has not receiv花她ed the largest dividend. Macr朋市on believes that if such a trend con下老tinues, the euro zone w得司ill collapse. This is fo森有r Merkel. For Merkel, she also knows村樂 that she needs to ch醫暗ange. The compromise between France and林動 Germany is not a compromise between th雨秒e two countries, but 看輛a compromise between France and Germa兒村ny for the EU’s development prospects.畫你
Hu Chunchun (Deputy Director廠南 of the German Research Center of錯少 Tongji University): I些一n terms of the in-depth re腦體form of the European 我我Union, it is now obvious 靜喝that Macron is a little bit forward 訊拍on the core issues of France a視讀nd Germany, competing for the leade來中rship of EU reform and de照森velopment. If Macron’s so火靜-called establishment o那就f a common Ministry of Finance 票雜in the Eurozone, and a common f朋件iscal policy, and the Minister of Fi好中nance should be put on the issue of媽他 personnel selection, you can im嗎通mediately see how much 到她Merkel will face. diffic答快ult. Whether the future finance 船司minister of the EU is Fren短音ch or German. Behind the two fisca著歌l cultures is the development exp從還erience accumulated in the devel湖小opment history of the two nation-下花states.
Dai Qixiu (Professor at the Scho費吧ol of International S紅舊tudies, Shanghai International銀影 Studies University, researcher at 樹錯the European Union Research Cen鐘船ter, deputy secretary-general 關我of the European Society of Shang嗎友hai): Macron’s most important dip我銀lomatic appeal is to reshape Eur林子opean leadership, both in economic i在秒ssues and security. Germany is al樂拍so very clear about this做多 and recognizes it.
It is no doubt that France and G相來ermany continue to play a cooper城爸ative leadership role, but作行 it involves the question of ho歌機w to balance the cooperation between 北用the two countries in the亮答 political and economic fields.店頻 Specifically, due to t科畫he sustained develop來銀ment of Germany and the sluggishne年術ss of France in rece又理nt years, the balance between 看森prosperity and decline has been broken男還. France takes the reform服空 of the euro area, especial器鐘ly the unification of laws,看黃 as the priority of reform; w小技hile Germany is eager微雜 to promote the field of common secu女了rity and defense. How to balance such裡術 problems needs to be blended in, not裡綠 the goal problem is the path proble輛機m.
I think Germany will make s化算ome compromises, and 煙算the euro zone reform 兒歌can still be promoted w技姐hen it does not involve the topic of de去外bt sharing.
The Influence of French-German Factors對南 on China-EU Relations
Zhang Ming, head of the Chinese miss紙錯ion to the European Union, p上習ointed out last month林低 that when he stressed the玩物 "Four Opportunities" faci光道ng the development of China-EU r城廠elations, the EU hop爸見es to promote a reform packa鄉從ge after the German-French 朋她election this year. If Ch學看ina wants to resolve the main contrad就火iction of insufficient 刀微and uneven development,和從 the key lies in reform. Therefore, 光物both sides can use the opp書少ortunities of a new round of techn站民ology and industrial revolu知愛tion to increase investment in innova內話tion, and they can also culti人對vate new growth points in the fields of這城 digital economy and green development工少. .
From the identification of decis媽訊ion-makers to specific business promo開女tion, the closeness of 鐘行China-EU economic cooper器雨ation is self-evident. However, there嗎可 are still noises under thi高錯s trend, including Fra開兵nce, Germany as the rep爸機resentative, the prudent atti錢雪tude towards the entry of oversea吧從s assets, and the doubtful attitude of 都著the Chinese economic system.
Long Jing (Deputy Direct錯近or of the European Research Center老服 of the Shanghai Institute of Interna討呢tional Studies): The 司兵next 2-3 years may be a cruci朋麗al moment for adjustme電微nt within the EU. On the one han門呢d, he will negotiate with the U能什nited Kingdom on "Brexi跳們t" and at the same t問我ime initiate the above-mentione紙子d reforms. The EU will become more 日農internal than outreach.學美 Under such a background, the EU may用東 maintain a balanced and healt開行hy development with major ext畫務ernal partnerships, rather t服用han substantively intervene in 區數some international issues姐票 beyond its reach. In ter路討ms of China-EU relations,費知 the EU and major member內玩 states are unlikely to infringe on Chi匠志na’s core interests on北黃 sensitive issues, and will streng風日then cooperation with China in c志讀ounter-terrorism.
However, on the other hand, man通開y of the EU reforms will invo醫做lve further concessions on the s計門overeignty of member countries in t子地he financial field, which may re西綠sult in more stringent EU 分聽financial standards and但秒 investment standard校司s, and may result in higher investme熱動nt in China’s investment in Euro從姐pe. barrier. After the start of 來長the "multi-speed Europe" development湖做, the EU may step up it藍雨s emphasis on unity and integ金微ration within the EU, 鐵遠and further develop v雜明arious policy tools under有分 its integration policy to appease 火體the new member states of慢月 Central and Eastern Europ劇湖e. For a cooperative m愛光echanism like "16+1", the reforming E業熱U may show greater sensitivity, even服民 precautionary sentiment. It m影線ay trigger a rise in cr家文iticism of China's Europ答大ean policy. Some countri河樹es in Central and Eastern 時飛Europe, even some small and medium-s懂大ized EU countries like Austria, the來謝ir willingness to cooperate with econo的筆mic forces outside the EU w睡金ill not only weaken but may ri玩要se further. This method is used t外通o combat the relatively marginalities w花爸ithin the EU These countries ma裡子y increase their sup筆看port and participation 在道in China's "Belt and Road I分就nitiative" to leverage China's economi鐘聽c and trade investment and inf紙小rastructure cooperation to劇務 promote the implementat分視ion of their own development str喝近ategies.
Luo Changyuan (Professor, Cen著書ter for European Studies, Fudan 兒我University, Deputy Direct得很or, Institute of World Economics亮黑): From a trade perspective, we can 在暗observe two facts. On the one 自輛hand, China’s trade with店訊 the EU accounts for the雜家 EU’s total trade The還視 status is becoming more and more i見器mportant, but on the oth報去er hand, the trade between the請水 EU countries is relatively s吧影queezed, and its share is getting s做開maller and smaller.
When Chinese imports increase, the 到器weakening effect on tra費多de within the EU countries is m些人ost pronounced. Although China's trad山務e exports have a significant weakening 見麗effect on US trade, t到們hey are relatively small跳日er. Compared with India, India’算通s export of commodities to the E件這U is actually contra頻女ry to China’s law. When India’s trade嗎大 volume with EU countries is l錯些arger, the internal trade 新廠of EU countries will also increase. 讀制Trade between India and the EU 門議To some extent, they ha事高ve strengthened their region知得al integration. Our prelimina如資ry estimate may be rela信冷ted to the industrial s門也tructure of trade or some laws at t亮好he product level.
Against such a background, some of th數你e biggest EU countries such as Germ什好any and France have raised concern亮少s about trade between China a師子nd the EU. EU countries' attitude t要農owards China's trade is ac微空tually divided into two fac麗生tions: one faction can的書 be attributed to France, Germany,快雪 Italy and other core countries. 分照Germany and France accoun鐵可t for a very large share of t外東rade among EU countries, and there ar志志e also EU organizations. 信從A stronger voice, in裡服 fact, hopes to reduce 哥坐trade with China and 多民promote regional integration; other mar事商ginalized countries, such as Gree湖拍ce and Portugal, are o作購pposed to their plans and hope 知還to establish bilateral tra學在de and exchanges with China.他的 To get some of their benefits.區習
Xin Hua (Executive De商朋puty Director of the E她綠uropean Studies Center of Shang飛訊hai International Studies Unive北林rsity and Director of the 船下Academic Research Department of the 路日Shanghai European Society): I will 鐘外talk about the basic structure and音學 long-term trends of China-EU econ如湖omic relations with the new trend o腦議f the European Union’s defens人鐵ive economic policy towards微做 China. Before the end o空要f 2015, the main influencing fa錢廠ctor of the EU’s defensive t拍工rade and investment policy decision讀也s on China was the Tran那水s-Pacific Partnership A街笑greement (TPP) issued by 身玩the Obama administration.熱刀 In 2016, the EU’s decision on China兒數’s defensive trade a一麗nd investment policy was 車見actually accompanied by 老車the EU’s determination of校藍 China’s market economy st跳間atus. Under such a backgrou吃亮nd, in March 2016, the European裡吧 Commission issued a more detailed,外還 A series of proposal員得s for various punitive measures ag車笑ainst anti-dumping and c喝快ountervailing measures for produ商司cts imported from non-EU拿刀 countries. In 2017, due to t草但he impact of Britain's "Bre吃農xit" elections and the election報月s of the three countries of the道呢 Netherlands, France and G問問ermany, the European Union物店 is eager to strengthen its internal行動 cohesion. He hopes to strengthen e男金conomic growth and ensure the prot作拍ection of the domestic market for the d火刀omestic market and industri行器al sectors. Under this situation,雨可 the EU has conducted人樹 a survey on the "market 木用distortion" situation and re-raised 業著the concept of globalization. In S答那eptember this year, a serie土訊s of national conditions docu如睡ments were issued.
However, the current defensiv文靜e economic policy of the EU against Ch坐來ina still shows a strong 些務two-sidedness, which is reflected 紙間in three points: First,舊微 the EU still nominally respects the妹秒 WTO-led international multilater河白al trading system and rule老中s system, and still af草靜firms globalization, However和大, the European Union is reflecting 友科on globalization, and has pu業兒t forward some negative and negativ熱鐵e views. It believes that globalizatio多可n needs to be constrained. If it is no術見t constrained, the EU wi術花ll be a loser in glo術從balization, and it will be cheaper fo姐算r the United States and China. Sec銀匠ondly, on the one hand, China st房知ill emphasizes the importance of China 電拍to the European economy, b唱吃ut within the EU, the海拿 decision to consider China’紙用s economic opposition to購但 and competition with Europ朋文e has become increasingly i店科mportant. Third, on the one hand, Chin森森a is still affirmed as a strategic part的農ner of Europe and has impo機子rtant strategic value t學老o the world; on the othe車兵r hand, the EU is funda理商mentally suspicious of China’s bas新樂ic economic system, whic冷跳h has ideological factors. . Moreove件地r, the EU's defensive econom是家ic policy towards China may 舞草develop stronger and stronge中你r in these three asp視長ects.
Wu Yikang (Professor 呢微of the European Research Center of th門吧e Shanghai Academy of Social Science城相s, Honorary President of the Shanghai電劇 European Society): The French-Ge鐘畫rman axis is sufficient to play a ro有行le, because the compleme裡刀ntarity is very good. I ju書關dge that Merkel may not be able to for就分m a strong government this time, which拿用 is more likely to contr睡為ibute to the balance between門和 France and Germany, which熱鐵 should have a positive side for 著你European integration. 服嗎Europe has few actual conflicts 外如of interest for China, but金車 as China’s power grows動刀 stronger, trade, investment, and eve紅一n the influence of China’s po場得litical system are expa從票nding.
Europe is a very importan明筆t and even stubborn base of W火地estern ideology. At present, t門器hey believe in pragmati綠物sm within Europe. When Eur時日ope's economy is difficult, pra動行gmatism and pragmati能市sm help economic recovery. They服快 will accept and want to develop mor你如e relations with China to fill議子 the gaps in Europe. 業暗But we should not ignore自到 or carelessly address ideo要問logical issues. On the in司身ternational stage, we can pa妹樂y special attention to th劇門e relationship with Europe, and the書老 tone should not be too high. The deve科章lopment of China-EU 技畫relations may not only be r家習eflected in actual frictions 鐘山in the future, but may even 也如appear in ideology and v在是alues.
